Retail Blog

Those of you not living on the moon might have noticed this year’s collision of Halloween with Christmas. We have long grown used to retail venues starting their Christmas promotions ever earlier, with old jokes about retailers eventually starting in January. However, this year marks a dramatic acceleration of this trend to what I think will be its extreme.

There was once a time when the Christmas shopping season was mostly limited to December. Thanksgiving, then usually the last Thursday in November, was the traditional start. Depending on how that last Thursday fell, there might be as few as only 24 days of shopping. Thus in 1939, with the depression lingering, FDR moved Thanksgiving back one week to extend the shopping season for retailers. This now meant that the Christmas season could be as long as 40 days.

For a long time this was enough. Indeed, it was somewhat unseemly for retailers to promote Christmas ahead of Thanksgiving. Macy’s established the tradition of Santa himself kicking off the Christmas season at the end of its Thanksgiving Day Parade, and most retailers and retail venues observed this convention. It was tidy, and helped give us the notion of ‘Black Friday’.

Somewhere along the way this all changed. Most likely, some retailer brought out the Christmas cheer early one year and it paid off. The next year more tried it, and before you know it my kids are wearing their costumes to see Santa. But like states jockeying to have the earliest possible presidential primaries, it’s no longer so much about getting the jump on the competition as it’s about just not losing out.

This year major retailers such as Wal-Mart and Toy-R-Us started their ‘Black Friday’ promotions some three full weeks ahead of Black Friday itself. Home Depot and Lowes’ had Christmas trees out in late September. Christmas decorations were in malls in October. We all expected to see Christmas stuff earlier this year than last, but it seems like everyone has jumped ahead a few years.

The main explanation for this is the expectation of a bad retail year. Oil is up, the war drags on, credit is crunching, housing is down, the dollar is down, there are no blockbuster products, etc. Indeed, the National Retail Federation predicts retail sales growth of just 3.7% over last year, compared to a 4.8% average. Actual returns so far suggest it will be even worse than that. But hanging lights early and piping in three months worth of the Trans-Siberian Orchestra won’t help. And it might even hurt.

The Christmas shopping season occupies fully one quarter of the year now. There is consumer desensitization, like the numbness from too much rubbing. Christmas loses its magic, and it ceases to be the emotional draw for shoppers that retailers need it to be. Rightly or not, I predict retailers will perceive that this year’s disappointing numbers were due in part to Christmas Overload. You’re hearing it here first. Next year, the conventional wisdom will be that the shopping season should be shorter.

The one bright spot in all this is, oddly, Thanksgiving. Remember that one? It’s one of the holidays that gives us the phrase “the holidays”. Whereas one could once count on seeing plastic pilgrims and turkeys in stores for at least a week or two, nowadays they’re nowhere to be seen. Outside of grocery, retailers have all but given up on Thanksgiving as a merchandising opportunity. Perhaps this sanctifies Thanksgiving, making it a more meaningful holiday.

So for now, have a Happy Thanksgiving! And have no worries - there are still plenty of shopping days left.